More than 60 percent of the countries that have filed emissions reduction plans with the UN now intend to participate in the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 carbon markets, according to a Carbon Pulse data analysis published this week. The headline figure would be easy to file as another sentiment survey, except that it landed alongside three concrete data points from the supply side: Morocco put a full carbon market law out for public consultation, Rwanda disclosed its first carbon credit revenues, and Albania committed in its new climate plan to selling credits through Article 6. For buyers, developers and investors, the message is that Article 6 is moving from diplomatic signalling into national legislation, registries and cash flows.

The Data: A Majority of Countries Want In

The Carbon Pulse data dive finds that over 60 percent of countries that have submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the UN have signalled their intention to participate in Article 6 carbon markets. Intentions expressed in NDCs are not binding commitments, but they are the first filter through which host-country pipelines form: a government that declares Article 6 participation typically follows with authorisation procedures, registry infrastructure and project pipelines.

That sequencing is exactly what this week’s country-level news shows happening in practice, across three very different economies.

Morocco has published draft legislation, Bill 62.25, for public comment on the website of the Secretariat-General of the Government. According to reporting by Hespress and the North Africa Post, the bill would establish a national carbon market registry and a climate transparency system, and would require authorisation for international transfers of emissions reductions.

The design covers the entire institutional chain. The electronic registry would record proposed emission-reduction projects, their implementation authorisations and permissions to transfer mitigation outcomes internationally, and would track the issuance and ownership of carbon units to prevent double counting. The draft also creates a national accreditation system for validation and verification bodies, defining the conditions for granting, suspending or withdrawing accreditation, with the stated aim of guaranteeing independence and technical competence. Violations would carry fines ranging from 500,000 to 2 million dirhams.

The explicit purpose, per the bill’s explanatory memorandum, is to align Morocco’s legal framework with its Paris Agreement commitments, including the Article 6 cooperation mechanisms. This is the compliance-grade architecture, authorisation, registry, accredited verifiers, anti-double-counting tracking, that buyers of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) increasingly demand before signing offtakes.

Rwanda Shows the Revenue Is Real

Rwanda offers the proof of concept. The country has generated approximately $1.5 million, nearly 2.2 billion Rwandan francs, from the sale of carbon credits under its carbon market framework, with 29 projects now registered with the Rwanda Environment Management Authority. The figures were presented on 16 September in Kigali by Faustin Munyazikwiye, the authority’s Deputy Director General.

The 29 registered projects are at various stages, from verification through to commercialisation of credits, and span land conservation, agriculture and forestry, among other sectors. The absolute revenue figure is modest, but its significance is structural: Rwanda’s framework has moved projects through registration, verification and sale, completing the full cycle that many national frameworks have only sketched on paper.

Albania Adds an ETS to the Article 6 Mix

Albania’s latest NDC takes the hybrid route. According to Carbon Pulse, the country intends to cover most of its 2035 emissions goal through domestic measures, but plans to sell carbon credits through Article 6 and to create a cap-and-trade market of its own. That combination, a domestic ETS alongside credit exports, is the template several mid-sized economies are now studying, because it lets a government keep a compliance price signal at home while monetising surplus reductions abroad.

What This Means for Buyers and Developers

For corporate buyers and compliance purchasers, the 60 percent figure expands the map of potential ITMO supply, but the binding constraint is not intent, it is authorisation capacity. Morocco’s bill illustrates what credible supply now requires: a functioning registry, accredited validators and verifiers, and transfer rules that prevent double counting. Buyers should expect host countries with this plumbing in place to command price premiums over those offering only letters of intent.

For project developers, Rwanda’s 29-project pipeline shows that early movers in smaller markets can reach commercialisation while larger jurisdictions are still drafting rules. The trade-off is scale: modest volumes today, but registry track record and government relationships that compound as demand from schemes like CORSIA and future compliance buyers grows.

For investors, the pattern to price is institutional, not project-level. Countries that complete the full stack, law, registry, accreditation, first sales, de-risk entire pipelines at once.

What to Watch

Three markers will test whether intent converts into market structure. First, the final text of Morocco’s Bill 62.25 after public consultation, particularly the authorisation criteria for international transfers. Second, whether Rwanda’s registered projects attract corresponding adjustments and ITMO-style authorisations, which would lift their credits into the compliance-grade tier. Third, the next round of NDC submissions: if the 60 percent participation share holds or rises as more countries file updated plans, the Article 6 supply map for the late 2020s will be substantially broader than today’s trading patterns suggest.