Why Around 100 Countries Are Keeping ITMOs Open for Their Paris Targets

Around 100 countries may use internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) to meet their Paris Agreement targets for 2025-35, according to a UN Climate Change progress report covered by Carbon Pulse. The finding confirms that the vast majority of governments are keeping Article 6 carbon markets open as a tool for meeting their latest nationally determined contributions (NDCs), rather than treating cooperative approaches as a fallback. For buyers and developers, this is a demand signal: the next generation of national climate plans is being written with international credit transfers built in.

What the UN Progress Report Found

The headline result is that most countries are preserving the option of using Article 6 markets for their 2025-35 targets, according to Carbon Pulse’s report on the UN findings. The underlying figures come from the UNFCCC secretariat’s NDC synthesis report, published in a provisional, unedited version. In total, 94% of Parties indicated that they plan to or may use at least one of the scopes of voluntary cooperation under Article 6, compared with 78% in the previous NDCs.

The breakdown shows where the interest sits. Specifically, 81% of Parties referred to the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes under Article 6, paragraphs 2 and 4, according to the synthesis report. A further 21% expressed interest in participating in non-market approaches under Article 6, paragraph 8, and 13% mentioned general use of voluntary cooperation under Article 6 without specifying a particular scope.

Source: CarbonMeld — independent carbon credit market intelligence. Document-based quality scores and assessments across all major registries: carbonmeld.com

The NDC Base Behind the Numbers

The percentages rest on a broad submission base. Between 1 January 2024 and 31 August 2026, 127 new NDCs, representing 154 Parties to the Paris Agreement, were recorded in the NDC registry, according to the synthesis report. Together, those NDCs cover about 71% of total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019.

Time frames matter for crediting horizons. A total of 79% of Parties communicated a time frame or period of implementation until 2035, while 6% specified periods until 2030, the report states. The secretariat also notes that collective progress in lowering projected emissions remains substantially off track from the reductions required to keep the 1.5 °C goal within reach, a gap that helps explain why so many governments are keeping market-based cooperation available. Because the synthesis is a provisional, unedited version, its figures could shift slightly in the final published text.

A Second Dataset Points the Same Way

The UN findings align with a separate implementation stocktake released days earlier. The Article 6 Implementation Partnership (A6IP) published its 2026 Article 6 Implementation Status Report on 20 October 2026, covering developments across 106 UNFCCC Parties, according to the A6IP announcement. It finds that 91% of NDC 3.0 submissions indicate an intention to use or consider using Article 6.

On the infrastructure side, the A6IP report counts 113 bilateral cooperation arrangements now active across 68 Parties, covering 221 mitigation activities under Article 6.2. It also records that 94 Parties have authorization and/or tracking arrangements in place, in progress, or under consideration. Under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, 1,159 prior consideration notifications have been submitted and 415 CDM activities approved for transition.

Authorized supply remains small relative to stated demand. Independent crediting programs include 8,948 activities with post-2021 crediting periods, alongside 99 Article 6-authorized activities and 48.2 million tCO2e of authorized credits, according to A6IP. The partnership also reports 81 Article 6-related capacity-building and implementation support programs active globally, engaging more than 123 Parties, and 55% of private-sector respondents reporting improved government institutional capacity over the past 12 months.

Implications for Buyers, Developers and Investors

For buyers, the 94% figure confirms that Article 6 demand is structural, not niche, spanning both compliance use toward NDCs and voluntary cooperation. The constraint is authorization: only 99 authorized activities and 48.2 million tCO2e of authorized credits exist against interest from the vast majority of Parties, so eligibility, not availability of underlying activities, will set prices.

For developers, the actionable signal is the gap between intent and readiness. The 94 Parties with authorization or tracking arrangements in place, in progress, or under consideration define the near-term pipeline of host countries where corresponding adjustments can realistically be secured. The 415 CDM activities approved for transition to the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism mark another source of future authorized supply worth tracking.

For investors, the spread between 81% of Parties referencing ITMOs and 113 active bilateral arrangements across 68 Parties is the key risk metric. Demand architecture is widening faster than the bilateral deals and national registries needed to clear it, which favours early positions in jurisdictions with functioning authorization frameworks.

What to Watch

• The final published version of the UNFCCC synthesis report, which may adjust the provisional figures.
• The A6IP webinar on 28 October 2026, where the status report’s findings will be discussed.
• Conversion of stated intent into host-country authorizations, the gating step for ITMO supply.
• Growth in the 48.2 million tCO2e of authorized credits relative to NDC demand for 2025-35.
• Whether Parties still undecided on Article 6 scope move toward ITMOs or non-market approaches.

The direction is consistent across both datasets: Article 6 is moving from the margins of national climate planning into its core. The open question is how fast authorization capacity catches up with declared demand.