Doubling the ITMO Ceiling: Brazil Approves ETS Guidelines and a 2030 Deforestation Roadmap

Brazil approved general guidelines for its emissions trading system (ETS) on Friday, setting the direction for implementation as operators prepare to report their emissions, according to Carbon Pulse. The same meeting of the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change (CIM) approved a national roadmap to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030 and set new ceilings on mitigation results, according to Eixos, a package that matters for the companies the system will cover and for buyers looking at Brazil as a source of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes.

Guidelines for the SBCE, with implementation from 2027

The CIM, the interministerial body responsible for policies to confront climate change, approved on Friday, 6 November, the resolution establishing the general guidelines of the Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System (SBCE), according to the Ministério da Fazenda.

The resolution was proposed by the Ministério da Fazenda, which said it consolidates progress made so far and guides the implementation of the SBCE from 2027, according to the ministry. The SBCE is the regulated carbon market created by law 15.042, which originated from bill PL 182/2024, according to Eixos.

Friday’s decision sets direction rather than finishing the rulebook. The guidelines define the framework under which the system will be built, while operators prepare to report their emissions, according to Carbon Pulse. The detailed obligations for covered companies will follow from that framework as implementation advances toward 2027.

A 2030 roadmap against deforestation

The committee also approved the roadmap of the Brazilian path to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030, according to Eixos.

The decision arrives on improving data. Eixos reported a drop of about 560 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in Brazil’s net emissions between 2022 and 2024, mainly due to the reduction in deforestation. The roadmap gives the land use agenda a formal place alongside the carbon market buildout, and it links the country’s most significant recent emissions trend to a dated policy horizon.

A doubled ceiling for international transfers

The committee set a ceiling of 50 million tonnes of carbon equivalent for results generated from 2026 to 2030, and a further 100 million tonnes for the period from 2031 to 2035, according to Eixos. Carbon Pulse characterised the package approved on Friday as a doubling of the ceiling on internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs).

For prospective buyers, the two ceilings define the outer bound of the results Brazil is prepared to make available for transfer in each period, with the second window exactly twice the size of the first. For developers, the ceilings signal that internationally authorized supply is part of the government’s planning horizon through 2035, running in parallel with the domestic compliance market rather than instead of it.

A COP31 agenda and a parallel energy plan

Source: CarbonMeld — independent carbon credit market intelligence. Document-based quality scores and assessments across all major registries: carbonmeld.com

The results of the meeting will compose the agenda that Brazil takes to COP31, according to Eixos.

Also on Friday, the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) approved the National Energy Transition Plan, known as Plante, whose actions will be reviewed every four years, according to Eixos. Taken together, the climate committee decisions and the energy plan give Brazil a package that spans the carbon market framework, the forestry agenda and energy policy ahead of the conference.

What to watch

For companies that will be covered by the SBCE, the immediate marker is 2027, the year from which the finance ministry frames the guidelines as orienting implementation. Operators are already preparing to report their emissions, and the sequencing of the detailed rules that follow the guidelines will determine how the compliance calendar takes shape.

For project developers and buyers of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes, the ceilings of 50 million tonnes of carbon equivalent for results generated from 2026 to 2030 and 100 million tonnes for 2031 to 2035 set the scale of potential authorized supply across the two periods. The deforestation roadmap, with its 2030 horizon, ties Brazil’s land use agenda directly to its carbon market diplomacy ahead of COP31, where the meeting’s results will form part of the country’s agenda. The next signals to watch are the implementing acts that translate the guidelines into obligations and any further detail on how the transfer ceilings will be administered in practice.