Over 100 Mt of REDD+ Results, Zero Authorised Transfers: Ethiopia Maps Its Article 6 Path

Ethiopia has reported more than 100 million tonnes of CO2e in REDD+ results covering 2018 to 2022 and has detailed its emerging framework for international carbon trading, while confirming it has yet to authorise the first transfer of any Article 6 credits, according to Carbon Pulse. For buyers, developers and investors tracking African forest carbon supply, Ethiopia’s REDD+ results position the country as a large potential source of units whose market access still depends on government authorisation decisions.

What the first BTR puts on record

The figures appear in Ethiopia’s First Biennial Transparency Report, submitted under Article 13 of the Paris Agreement and published in 2026 by the Ministry of National Strategy in Addis Ababa, according to the BTR document. The report includes a dedicated section, numbered 2.11, titled Ethiopia’s Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and Carbon Markets Implementation, according to the BTR document.

That section is where the country lays out how it intends to engage with international carbon markets. The headline message is deliberately two-sided: a substantial volume of reported results on one side, and no authorised Article 6 transfer on the other, according to Carbon Pulse.

The MRV work behind the numbers

The reported results rest on several years of national forest monitoring. Ethiopia has established a national-scale forest reference level for the reference period 2013 to 2017, which serves as the benchmark for demonstrating how forest-related activities reduced emissions and increased removals during 2018 to 2022, according to FAO.

The Ethiopian Forestry Development Agency submitted the country’s second national forest reference level report to the UNFCCC, building on an initial submission in 2016, according to FAO. In parallel, the agency filed documentation with the Architecture for REDD+ Transactions under its TREES standard to access results-based finance, including up to USD 15 million committed by Norway for verified emission reduction TREES credits achieved during the 2018 to 2022 period, according to FAO.

The two tracks are aligned. Both submissions use the same data, methodologies, forest definition, carbon pools and uncertainty approaches, which Ethiopia says ensures consistency between UNFCCC reporting and jurisdictional REDD+ reporting and enables participation in the voluntary carbon market, according to FAO.

Capacity building and institutional depth

The submissions were prepared under a measurement, reporting and verification phase II project implemented by the forestry agency with technical support from FAO and financial support from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, according to FAO. Since 2023, the project has run training on land use mapping, forest inventories, greenhouse gas estimation and uncertainty analysis using higher IPCC approaches.

Ethiopia is also investing domestically. In 2024, the government launched the Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund, according to FAO, and the country is widely recognised in Africa for government-led large-scale forest restoration.

Why the missing authorisation matters

The fact that no Article 6 credit transfer has been authorised is the operative detail for the market. Reported results, even at the scale of more than 100 million tonnes, do not become tradable internationally until a host country authorises them. Ethiopia’s framework sets out the architecture for that step, but the step itself has not been taken, according to Carbon Pulse.

For buyers, this means Ethiopian supply remains prospective rather than available. For developers, the alignment between UNFCCC reporting, the forest reference level and TREES documentation lowers the technical risk around future issuances, because the same underlying data feeds all three channels.

What to watch

The near-term checkpoint is the technical assessment of Ethiopia’s forest reference level by the UNFCCC roster of experts, which the country expected in March 2026, according to FAO. Its outcome shapes the credibility of the benchmark against which the 2018 to 2022 results are measured.

Source: CarbonMeld — independent carbon credit market intelligence. Document-based quality scores and assessments across all major registries: carbonmeld.com

Beyond that, watch for two decisions: the issuance and payment linked to the Norway-backed TREES credits, worth up to USD 15 million, and the first Ethiopian authorisation of an Article 6 transfer. The second is the event that would convert a large reported results base into actual cross-border supply.