Energy Efficient Stoves Program - CPA 3

Audit Analysis

The Energy Efficient Stoves Program (CPA 3) in Ethiopia has a VVB-verified additionality assessment and a quantified leakage deduction, but is undermined by a large number of unresolved corrective actions, a project-specific baseline with no stated reassessment date, unaddressed reversal risk, and multiple material contradictions in key quantification parameters (FNRB, ex-ante ERR, leakage rate, baseline method). The low extraction confidence and the 3.3× discrepancy in lifetime ex-ante emissions reductions create meaningful uncertainty about whether the 98,921 tCO₂e verified for 2023 is properly grounded.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Lifetime ex-ante ERR differs by a factor of 3.3 between the PDD (465,280 tCO₂e) and an appendix (139,584 tCO₂e); if the lower figure is correct, the 2023 verified ERR of 98,921 tCO₂e represents 213% of the pro-rata expectation, indicating potential over-crediting.
• ⚠FNRB value is reported as 76 in the 2024 verification report but 0.76 in the 2023 monitoring report — a 100× discrepancy that cannot be explained by a simple unit conversion and raises questions about the non-renewable fraction of the biomass fuel.
• ⚠Reversal risk (stove durability, replacement, reversion to traditional cooking) is explicitly marked as 'not addressed' in the extracted record, with no buffer pool or permanence mechanism stated.
• ⚠Four corrective action requests (CAR 01–04) and four compliance-level findings (CL 01–04) remain in the verification record, including unresolved issues on baseline SDG impact calculation, stove efficiency parameters, and Gold Standard eligibility demonstration.
• ⚠Leakage deduction is 0.95% in the 2024 verification report but 5% in the 2024 monitoring report — a five-fold difference that materially affects the net credit quantity.

Credit Vintages