Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Through Super-Critical Technology - Sasan Power Ltd.

Audit Analysis

A CDM supply-side energy efficiency project (super-critical power plant in India) with a VVB-confirmed investment additionality test, but significant concerns around a project-specific baseline, a 0% leakage deduction with minimal justification, and a verified ERR that is only about 31% of the pro-rata expectation for the elapsed monitoring period. Multiple material findings in the validation report (calculation errors, incomplete PDD, missing HGA) were corrected, but the volume of issues and the under-delivery signal weaken confidence in the original ex-ante estimates.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Verified ERR of ~1.59 MtCO2 for the 2.3-year monitoring period is only ~31% of the pro-rata expectation (~5.17 MtCO2) derived from the PDD's 22.46 MtCO2 lifetime estimate, suggesting the baseline or efficiency assumptions may have been overly optimistic.
• ⚠Seven material findings in the validation report, including incorrect efficiency values, flawed investment calculations, a non-compliant emission factor equation, and a missing Host Government Approval, indicate the initial documentation was substantially deficient.
• ⚠Leakage deduction of 0% is justified only as 'deemed negligible' with no quantitative analysis, which is thin for a supply-side project where displaced electricity could be rerouted.
• ⚠CORSIA eligibility and CCP status are not stated in any available document, leaving the dual-channel risk unassessed.

Credit Vintages