GS5304 MKOPA Solar Lighting Programme of Activities - Kenya VPA 5 by Natural Capital Partners

Audit Analysis

The M-KOPA Solar Lighting VPA 5 project has VVB-confirmed additionality and documented safeguards, but suffers from a project-specific baseline with no stated reassessment date, a 0% leakage deduction with contradictory justifications across verification reports, and a significant usage-rate discrepancy (1.0 in the PDD vs 3.5 in a later appendix) that raises over-crediting concerns. Multiple material findings and corrective actions, including a reported (then corrected) exceedance of ex-ante estimates, further erode confidence in the credit quantity.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Usage rate assumption jumped from 1.0 (PDD, 2016) to 3.5 (appendix, 2017) — a 3.5× increase in the parameter driving credit quantity, with no documented justification for the change
• ⚠Leakage justification is contradictory: the 2025 verification report states 'quantified' while the 2024 verification report states 'deemed negligible', yet the deduction is 0% in both cases
• ⚠Monitoring method is inconsistent: the 2024 monitoring report references smart-meter data while the 2025 verification report describes an annual survey, creating uncertainty about the actual MRV mechanism
• ⚠A material finding (CL-02) noted that VPA 5 VERs initially exceeded ex-ante estimates; this was attributed to a reporting error and corrected, but the initial discrepancy signals weak internal quality control

Credit Vintages