İZMIR LANDFILL GAS (LFG) CAPTURE AND UTILIZATION PROJECT

Audit Analysis

The İzmir LFG project has a VVB-verified investment additionality test and a measured project-specific baseline, but suffers from a critical permanence gap (no buffer pool, no non-performance risk rating, reversal risk entirely unaddressed) and a serious over-delivery signal (verified ERs at ~146% of the pro-rata ex-ante expectation), which together raise material doubts about baseline robustness and additionality. The verification report lists over 20 material findings and 28 corrective actions, indicating significant data-quality and reporting deficiencies across the monitoring and verification chain.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Permanence risk is entirely unaddressed: no buffer pool, no non-performance risk rating, and reversal events are marked as 'not addressed' in the verification report — a critical gap for an LFG project where gas composition and generation can shift over time.
• ⚠Verified emission reductions (2,445,711 tCO₂e) are approximately 146% of the pro-rata ex-ante expectation (~1,675,799 tCO₂e for the ~3-year monitoring period out of the 7-year crediting period), and the verification report itself flags that the 51.77% over-delivery has an 'unclear impact on additionality and methodology applicability.'
• ⚠28 corrective actions and 22+ material findings were raised, including inconsistent grid emission factors (0.5552 vs 0.5706 tCO₂e/MWh), missing calibration details for monitoring equipment, and an undocumented capacity increase deviation from the approved project description.
• ⚠The project proponent changed from Biosolutions to Gaia Climate/Biotrend during the crediting period, and no ongoing local stakeholder consultation mechanism was documented in the monitoring report.

Credit Vintages