Safe Water Programme – Kenya – VPA 34

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Kenya has a VVB-confirmed investment additionality test and conservative usage-rate assumptions, but is undermined by a project-specific baseline, an unaddressed 0% leakage deduction, and 22 corrective actions flagging fundamental monitoring-methodology weaknesses (sampling design, potential bias in tablet-usage data, monitoring gaps). The material finding that actual reductions fall below the PDD's ex-ante estimate is reassuring for over-crediting risk, yet the breadth of unresolved methodological issues limits confidence in the verified figures.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠22 corrective actions required in the 2024 verification report, including concerns about systemic bias in chlorine-tablet usage data that could lead to overestimation of reductions
• ⚠Leakage deduction of 0% with justification recorded as 'not addressed' in the most recent verification report (2024-09-21), contradicting an earlier 'deemed negligible' statement
• ⚠Project-specific baseline with no documented reassessment date, and no buffer pool or permanence mechanism stated in available documents
• ⚠Material finding in the 2024 verification report: actual emission reductions are lower than ex-ante estimates in the registered PDD, indicating the PDD's original projections were not conservative

Credit Vintages