Safe Water Programme – Nigeria – VPA 25

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Nigeria has a VVB-confirmed investment additionality test and a named verification body, but suffers from significant data-quality issues: a massive FNRB discrepancy between reporting periods (82.3 vs 0.96), a leakage deduction of 0% that the verification report marks as 'not addressed,' and 22 outstanding corrective actions. The project's claims are not yet robust enough to support high-confidence crediting.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠FNRB value changed from 0.96 (local field measurement, 2023 report) to 82.3 (national default, 2024 report) — an 86-fold increase that is not explained in the extracted record and raises serious over-crediting risk
• ⚠Leakage deduction of 0% with justification recorded as 'not addressed' in the 2024 verification report, contradicting the monitoring report's claim that leakage was 'deemed negligible'
• ⚠22 corrective actions remain open, including sampling methodology non-compliance with CDM Appendix 3, potential systemic bias in chlorine tablet usage, and unverified operational-day assumptions for different institution types
• ⚠Buffer pool percentage and reversal-event history are not stated in any available document, leaving permanence risk unquantified
• ⚠Baseline is project-specific with no recorded reassessment date, and no LCA or FPIC documentation was found

Credit Vintages