Safe Water Programme – Nigeria – VPA 26

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Nigeria has a confirmed investment-test additionality and a named VVB, but is undermined by a severe emission-factor contradiction (82.3 vs 0.96 across verification cycles), an unaddressed 0% leakage deduction, the absence of any buffer pool, and 24 outstanding corrective actions. The project-specific baseline and the dramatic shift in the functional net reduction benefit value raise material over-crediting concerns that are not resolved by the verified usage rate exceeding the assumed rate.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠FNRB value changed from 0.96 (local field, 2023 verification) to 82.3 (national default, 2024 verification) — an approximately 86-fold difference that is unexplained and could indicate a unit error or a fundamental baseline parameter change
• ⚠Leakage deduction is 0% and the verification report (2024-07-25) records the justification as 'not addressed', while the monitoring report (2024-07-23) claims it was 'deemed negligible' — the higher-priority VVB document does not support the negligible claim
• ⚠24 corrective actions remain open, including sampling-design non-compliance with CDM Appendix 3, unverified treatment-capacity values, and a typographical error referencing the wrong column for a key parameter
• ⚠Baseline is project-specific with no recorded reassessment date, and the baseline method was not independently measured versus modelled

Credit Vintages