VPA 16 Kilifi Borehole Rehabilitation Project

Audit Analysis

The Kilifi Borehole Rehabilitation Project (GS7513) demonstrates solid additionality through a VVB-verified combined test and is over-delivering relative to its ex-ante estimate (118.5% of pro-rata expectation). However, the absence of a buffer pool for a project whose physical asset (a borehole) is inherently failure-prone, combined with 15 material findings and 13 corrective actions, raises meaningful concerns about data reliability and permanence risk. Multiple contradictions across documents—particularly on leakage justification and FNRB method—further erode confidence in the underlying data.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠15 material findings and 13 corrective actions identified in the 2025 verification report, including inconsistencies in Np,y values, missing baseline/project emissions in MR sections, and incorrect SDG impact figures across multiple VPAs
• ⚠Contradiction on leakage justification: the verification report (Mar 2025) states 'quantified' while the monitoring report (Feb 2025) states 'deemed negligible', with a 0% deduction applied in both cases
• ⚠FNRB method contradiction: the 2023 verification report records 'local_field' while the 2025 monitoring report records 'national_default', creating uncertainty about which emission factor basis underpins the 0.93 FNRB value
• ⚠Baseline data from 2017 was found to be non-representative of safe water access, requiring a full re-survey in 2022—indicating the original project design relied on flawed baseline data

Credit Vintages