Cajambre REDD+ Project

Audit Analysis

The Cajambre REDD+ project is a well-structured VCS ALM project with VVB-verified additionality, a 14% buffer pool, quantified leakage, and no reported reversal events. However, a major discrepancy between the 2015 validation report's lifetime ex-ante estimate (7.36 million tCO2e) and the 2024 verification report's figure (1.11 million tCO2e) raises significant data-reliability concerns, and the verified ERR for the 2018–2019 monitoring period (531,415 tCO2e) is roughly 7 times the pro-rata expectation derived from the 2024 lifetime estimate, flagging a potential over-crediting risk. Several key parameters (FNRB method, usage monitoring, CORSIA/CCP status) are not stated in the available documents.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Lifetime ex-ante ERR differs by a factor of ~6.6 between the 2015 validation report (7,358,393 tCO2e) and the 2024 verification report (1,111,200 tCO2e); the basis for this revision is not explained in the extracted record.
• ⚠Verified ERR of 531,415 tCO2e for the 2018–2019 monitoring period is approximately 7.2× the pro-rata expectation (74,080 tCO2e) derived from the 2024 lifetime ex-ante estimate, raising over-crediting concerns unless the figure is cumulative across multiple periods.
• ⚠Buffer pool percentage is 14% in the 2019 verification report but 10% in the 2014 PDD; the higher (more conservative) 2019 value is privileged, but the discrepancy is unexplained.
• ⚠FNRB method and value are not stated in any available document, leaving the forest net regeneration benefit assumption unverifiable.
• ⚠A corrective action remains open: verification that final Maximum Mitigation Potential (MMP) calculations are available and legally applicable in the next verification cycle.

Credit Vintages