Central Texas Reforestation 2022

Audit Analysis

The Central Texas Floodplain Reforestation project has a solid structural foundation with a VVB-verified combined additionality test, a jurisdictional baseline, and a 5% buffer pool, but is undermined by severe drought-related mortality affecting 9 of 15 sites, survival rates below the 25% threshold on 8 sites, and a complete absence of leakage and FNRB assessments. The contradiction between the verification report (no reversals) and the more recent monitoring report (reversals reported) further erodes confidence in the project's permanence claims.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Survival rates below the 25% threshold on 8 of 15 sites, with 9 sites requiring replanting due to drought-related mortality (monitoring report, Nov 2023)
• ⚠No leakage deduction or justification stated anywhere in the extracted record for a reforestation project where land-use diversion is a realistic risk
• ⚠Contradiction between the verification report (Nov 2022: no reversals) and the monitoring report (Nov 2023: reversals reported) on the status of reversal events
• ⚠Land ownership changes on two sites (Parcel R20562 and Site 11) raise questions about long-term project control and permanence
• ⚠FNRB value and method are not stated in any available document, weakening the additionality case for a forestry project
• ⚠Leakage not addressed in project documentation

Credit Vintages

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