Ceyhan 61.7 MW Hydropower Project

Audit Analysis

The Ceyhan 61.7 MW hydropower project is a long-operating avoidance project with VVB-confirmed additionality and no material findings, but its credit record is undermined by eleven cross-document contradictions, a low extraction confidence rating, and a verified emission reduction figure that exceeds the pro-rata ex-ante expectation by roughly 288%. The project's fundamental design (grid-displacement hydropower) carries low inherent permanence and leakage risk, yet documentation gaps and inconsistent baseline/EF values limit confidence in the exact credit quantity.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Eleven contradictions across documents, including a 2.4× discrepancy in verified ER (681,250 in the monitoring report vs 287,566 in the verification report) and a 25% grid emission factor gap (0.4929 in the PDD vs 0.615 in the monitoring report)
• ⚠Verified ER of 681,250 tCO₂e for the 2018–2020 monitoring period is approximately 288% of the pro-rata ex-ante expectation (~236,679 tCO₂e), raising over-crediting concerns even accounting for hydrological variability
• ⚠Baseline method is stated as 'project' in the verification report but 'jurisdictional' in the monitoring report, creating ambiguity about the baseline construction
• ⚠Two corrective actions remain open: the EIA Not Required Certificate was not provided to the DOE and 2009 stakeholder meeting records were not submitted
• ⚠Minimum extraction confidence is rated low, indicating at least one key document was poorly readable

Credit Vintages