China Guangdong Shenzhen Qianwan LNG generation project

Audit Analysis

A CDM fossil-fuel-switch project (LNG replacing coal) in Shenzhen with a well-understood emission-reduction mechanism, but the extracted record shows significant gaps in additionality evidence, a major discrepancy between the PDD ex-ante estimate (1.55 MtCO₂e) and the validated/verified figure (220,897 tCO₂e), and a contradiction on baseline method. The two minor PDD formatting findings are low-risk, but the ERR gap and missing additionality documentation materially weaken confidence in the project's integrity and claim safety.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠The PDD ex-ante estimate of 1,546,279 tCO₂e is roughly 7× the validated and verified figure of 220,897 tCO₂e, indicating either a severe over-estimation in the PDD or a scope mismatch that was not reconciled in the validation report.
• ⚠Additionality test type and VVB confirmation are not stated in any extracted document, leaving the core CDM additionality requirement unverified in the available record.
• ⚠Baseline method is reported as 'project-specific' in the monitoring report but 'jurisdictional' in the validation report — an unresolved contradiction that affects the robustness of the counterfactual.

Credit Vintages