Delta Blue Carbon – 1

Audit Analysis

Delta Blue Carbon – 1 is a 60-year mangrove restoration project in Pakistan with VVB-confirmed additionality and a 12% buffer pool, but it carries an unusually large volume of material findings (over 60) and corrective actions (over 40) spanning area changes, allometric equation revisions, missing agreements, and unresolved non-permanence risk documentation. The project delivered roughly 52% of the pro-rata lifetime expectation for the 2021–2023 monitoring period, which is below the linear benchmark but partially explainable by mangrove growth curves. The sheer density of unresolved issues and missing supporting documents significantly undermines confidence in the robustness of the credit claims.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Over 60 material findings and 40+ corrective actions identified by the VVB, including area reduction from 75,565 ha to 73,465.85 ha, 340.90 ha lost to erosion, and non-eligible areas inside the project boundary
• ⚠Non-permanence risk is marked as 'not addressed' in the 2024 verification report for a 60-year mangrove project, despite the 12% buffer pool
• ⚠Leakage deduction is 0% with a 'quantified' justification, yet the earlier 2022 monitoring report listed leakage as 'not addressed' — the basis for the zero deduction is not transparently documented
• ⚠Multiple foundational documents are missing: GIS files, Mangrove Stewardship Agreement, IDC–Sindh Forest Department agreement, financial model, Grievance Redress SOP, and anti-discrimination assurance
• ⚠Allometric equations for Avicennia marina were changed mid-project and related-species equations were used for Ceriops tagal and Aegiceras corniculatum, introducing estimation uncertainty

Credit Vintages