EcoMakala Virunga Reforestation project

Audit Analysis

The EcoMakala Virunga Reforestation project has a verified additionality assessment and a 20% buffer pool, but faces significant permanence risk from ongoing M23 rebel activity that has displaced planters and caused abandonment of nurseries. The absence of a verified ERR figure, a project-specific baseline, and a 0% leakage deduction with contradictory justifications across verification reports create meaningful over-crediting and transparency concerns. Low extraction confidence across 29 documents further limits the reliability of the available evidence.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Ongoing M23 rebel activity since 2021 has displaced tree planters, caused abandonment of nurseries in Rutshuru, Masisi, and Nyiragongo, and created a precarious security environment that directly threatens permanence of stored carbon
• ⚠No verified ERR figure is available in the extracted record (total_err_verified is absent), making it impossible to confirm whether claimed reductions are supported by measurement
• ⚠Leakage deduction of 0% is maintained despite a corrective action requiring the project to 'assess impact of displacement of growers outside project area for leakage,' suggesting the 0% figure may not be fully justified
• ⚠The 2023 verification report lists reversal events as 'not addressed,' while the 2025 monitoring report states 'none reported' — the verification report's silence on reversal risk is a gap given the security context
• ⚠Strata 4 and 7 were excluded from the second performance certification due to low sample size, reducing the representativeness of the monitoring

Credit Vintages