Guohua Tongliao Kezuozhongqi Qiansijing Wind Farm Project

Audit Analysis

A CDM wind farm project in China with a confirmed investment-test additionality assessment by ERM and a jurisdictional grid-emission-factor baseline appropriate for the technology. The project delivered approximately 5.9× the pro-rata ex-ante expectation for its first two-year monitoring period, which is a significant over-delivery warranting scrutiny. Multiple parameter contradictions across documents (leakage justification, baseline method, additionality test type) reduce confidence in the internal consistency of the record.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Verified emissions reductions of 183,407 tCO₂ for the 2-year monitoring period are approximately 5.9× the pro-rata expectation of ~31,359 tCO₂ derived from the 109,755 tCO₂ ex-ante estimate over the full 7-year crediting period — an extreme over-delivery that requires explanation (capacity ramp-up, grid EF change, or estimation error).
• ⚠Baseline method is described as 'project' in the monitoring report but 'jurisdictional' in the validation report; for a wind project displacing grid electricity, the jurisdictional (grid-average) baseline is the appropriate and expected method, and the inconsistency undermines confidence in the baseline documentation.
• ⚠Leakage justification is stated as 'deemed negligible' in the validation report but 'not addressed' in the monitoring report, creating an inconsistency in how a standard CDM requirement is documented across the project's record.

Credit Vintages