Safe Water Programme – Kenya - VPA 49

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Kenya has a VVB-verified combined additionality test and a reasonable monitoring framework, but is undermined by a major discrepancy between the ex-ante lifetime estimate (298,090 tCO₂e) and the verified figure for a single 11-month period (1,023,164 tCO₂e), a leakage deduction of 0% that is not properly justified, and eight or more corrective actions still open. The project's data reliability is significantly weakened by these contradictions and the material finding that actual emission reductions are lower than ex-ante estimates, which is inconsistent with the reported figures.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠The verified emission reduction figure of 1,023,164 tCO₂e for an 11-month monitoring period is approximately 3.4 times the entire ex-ante lifetime estimate of 298,090 tCO₂e, yet the verification report's material findings state that actual ERs are lower than ex-ante estimates — an internal contradiction that undermines confidence in the reported numbers.
• ⚠Leakage deduction is 0% with the justification recorded as 'not addressed' in the verification report, while the monitoring report claims it was 'deemed negligible' — the two documents disagree and neither provides a quantitative or methodological basis.
• ⚠Eight or more corrective actions remain open, including requirements to fix sampling methodology, justify monitoring gaps, address potential overestimation from chlorine tablet usage, and collect missing population confirmation letters from institutions.

Credit Vintages