Safe Water Programme – Nigeria – VPA 01

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Nigeria has a VVB-confirmed additionality test and no reported reversals, but is undermined by a project-specific baseline, a 0% leakage deduction with a contradictory justification, two material findings flagging potential overestimation, and 23 corrective actions. Multiple contradictions across verification reports—particularly in the FNRB value (82.3 vs 0.96) and method (national default vs local field)—raise concerns about the robustness of the credit calculation. The absence of an ex-ante lifetime ERR figure prevents a definitive pro-rata delivery check.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠FNRB value changed from 0.96 (local field, 2023 report) to 82.3 (national default, 2025 report) — a method and value shift that materially affects credit volume and is not explained in the extracted record
• ⚠Material Finding FAR#2 explicitly warns of 'systemic bias in chlorine tablet usage leading to overestimation of emission reduction', directly threatening claim integrity
• ⚠23 corrective actions required in the 2025 verification report, including substantive gaps in sampling design, monitoring continuity, and evidence for treatment capacity values
• ⚠Leakage justification contradicts itself across reports: 'deemed negligible' (March 2025) vs 'not addressed' (July 2024), with a 0% deduction throughout

Credit Vintages