Safe Water Programme – Nigeria – VPA 04

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Nigeria has a VVB-verified investment additionality test and a conservative usage-rate assumption, but is undermined by an extensive list of 22 corrective actions, 8 material findings on sampling and bias, a 0% leakage deduction with no substantive justification, and a critical FNRB contradiction (82.3 vs 0.96) between verification reports. The exact match between claimed and verified ERR figures raises over-crediting concerns, and the absence of a buffer pool or stated permanence mechanism leaves residual risk unaddressed.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Claimed and verified ERR figures are identical (1,232,137 tCO2e), suggesting the VVB did not independently recalculate or adjust the project's estimate
• ⚠FNRB value contradicts itself across verification reports: 82.3 (national default, 2024) vs 0.96 (local field, 2023) — an approximately 85-fold discrepancy that cannot be reconciled from available documents
• ⚠Leakage deduction is 0% with the justification recorded as 'not addressed' in the 2024 verification report, despite the monitoring report claiming it was 'deemed negligible'
• ⚠22 corrective actions and 8 material findings indicate systemic weaknesses in the monitoring and reporting methodology, including sampling design, chlorine-tablet usage bias, and operational-day accounting

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