Safe Water Programme – Nigeria – VPA 08

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Nigeria has a confirmed investment-test additionality and a verified usage rate (96.84%) that exceeds the assumed 90%, but is undermined by a project-specific baseline, contradictory leakage treatment, a dramatic FNRB method change between reporting periods, and over 20 outstanding corrective actions. The absence of a stated buffer pool, permanence claim, and lifetime ex-ante ERR figure limits confidence in the long-term integrity of the credit.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠FNRB value changed from 0.96 (local field method, 2023 VR) to 82.3 (national default, 2024 VR) — a method and value shift that cannot be fully reconciled without the underlying calculation sheets
• ⚠Leakage deduction of 0% is justified as 'deemed negligible' in the monitoring report but listed as 'not addressed' in the verification report — the two documents disagree on whether leakage was even considered
• ⚠Over 20 corrective actions remain open, including sampling methodology non-compliance with CDM Appendix 3, potential systemic bias in chlorine tablet usage, and incorrect baseline parameters (Kenya references in a Nigerian project)

Credit Vintages