Safe Water Programme – Nigeria – VPA 09

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Nigeria has a VVB-verified investment additionality test and no reported reversal events, but suffers from a 0% leakage deduction with no proper justification, a project-specific baseline, no buffer pool, and 22 corrective actions flagged by the VVB. Multiple contradictions between the 2023 and 2024 verification reports—including a significant FNRB methodological shift from local field measurement to national default—raise concerns about the robustness and consistency of the MRV framework.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Leakage deduction of 0% with justification recorded as 'not addressed' in the 2024 verification report, while the monitoring report claims it was 'deemed negligible'—no quantitative or qualitative basis is provided in the higher-priority document
• ⚠22 corrective actions required by the VVB, including fixing Kenya-to-Nigeria baseline parameter errors, correcting a Cb value from 4.17% to 4.71%, and addressing potential systemic bias in chlorine tablet usage that could lead to overestimation of emission reductions
• ⚠FNRB value changed from 0.96 (local field measurement, 2023) to 82.3 (national default, 2024), representing a methodological shift that affects the magnitude of claimed reductions
• ⚠No ex-ante lifetime emission reduction estimate found in the extracted record, preventing a proper pro-rata comparison of verified versus expected reductions

Credit Vintages