Safe Water Programme – Nigeria – VPA 15

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Nigeria has VVB-confirmed additionality and documented safeguards, but is undermined by a project-specific baseline with no reassessment date, an unaddressed permanence mechanism, a 0% leakage deduction with minimal justification, and multiple material findings questioning the sampling methodology and potential bias in emission reduction calculations. Significant contradictions between monitoring reports on ERR figures (1.23M vs 864K) and FNRB values (96 vs 82.3) raise material over-crediting concerns.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠FNRB value discrepancy of 17% between the verification report (96) and the 2024 monitoring report (82.3), which if unresolved could overstate emission reductions by a similar margin
• ⚠ERR figures differ by 42% between two monitoring reports (1,232,137 in July 2024 vs 863,907 in March 2023), with no verified ERR figure found in the extracted record
• ⚠Multiple material findings (FAR#01, FAR#02) flag that the stratified random sampling approach does not meet CDM Guideline Appendix 3 requirements and that chlorine tablet usage may introduce systemic bias leading to overestimation of ERs
• ⚠Permanence risk is entirely unaddressed: no buffer pool percentage is stated and reversal events are marked as not addressed in the verification report
• ⚠Leakage deduction of 0% is justified only as 'deemed negligible' with no quantitative analysis or scenario assessment in the available documents

Credit Vintages