Safe Water Programme – Nigeria – VPA 22

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Nigeria has a confirmed investment-test additionality and a named VVB, but is undermined by a severe FNRB discrepancy between the 2023 and 2024 verification reports (82.3 national default vs. 0.96 local field), a 0% leakage deduction with no justification in the verification report, and the absence of any buffer pool or permanence mechanism. Twenty-four corrective actions and multiple cross-document contradictions indicate significant MRV quality issues that erode confidence in the verified emission reductions.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠FNRB value changed from 0.96 (local field, 2023 report) to 82.3 (national default, 2024 report) — an approximately 86-fold difference that could indicate massive over-crediting or a unit/methodology error
• ⚠Leakage deduction is 0% and the verification report (2024-07-25) records the justification as 'not addressed', while the monitoring report (2024-07-23) claims it is 'deemed negligible' — no quantitative leakage assessment is documented
• ⚠No buffer pool percentage is stated in any available document, leaving no permanence or reversal-risk mitigation mechanism for a 5-year crediting period
• ⚠Twenty-four corrective actions were required by the VVB, including errors in baseline parameters (Kenya references in a Nigerian project), incorrect Cb values, and missing sampling design details
• ⚠FPIC (Free, Prior and Informed Consent) is not confirmed in any available document despite the project serving schools and communities in Nigeria

Credit Vintages