Safe Water Programme – Nigeria – VPA 23

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Nigeria has a VVB-confirmed investment additionality test and verified usage rates exceeding assumptions, but is undermined by a dramatic FNRB discrepancy between the 2023 and 2024 verification reports (0.96 local-field vs 82.3 national-default), an unaddressed 0% leakage deduction, the absence of any documented buffer pool or permanence mechanism, and 24 corrective actions flagged by the VVB. Data reliability is further weakened by multiple cross-report contradictions and a medium extraction confidence level.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠FNRB value changed from 0.96 (local-field, 2023 verification report) to 82.3 (national-default, 2024 verification report) — an 86-fold discrepancy that fundamentally alters the emission-reduction calculation basis
• ⚠Leakage deduction of 0% with justification recorded as 'not addressed' in the 2024 verification report, contradicting the monitoring report's claim of 'deemed negligible'
• ⚠No buffer pool percentage or permanence mechanism documented in any available report, leaving reversal risk unmitigated
• ⚠24 corrective actions required by the VVB, including sampling-design non-compliance, potential systemic bias in chlorine-tablet usage, and incorrect baseline parameters (Kenya references in a Nigerian project)
• ⚠Total ERR figures differ between the 2023 and 2024 verification reports (647,669 vs 1,232,137) and no lifetime ex-ante estimate is available to benchmark pro-rata delivery

Credit Vintages