Safe Water Programme – Nigeria – VPA 27

Audit Analysis

The Safe Water Programme in Nigeria has a VVB-confirmed investment additionality test and a verified usage rate exceeding the assumed value, but is undermined by a project-specific baseline, an unaddressed leakage justification, the absence of any buffer pool, and 22 corrective actions flagged by the VVB. Multiple contradictions between the 2023 and 2024 verification reports—particularly in the FNRB value and method—raise data-reliability concerns that limit confidence in the claimed emission reductions.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Leakage deduction is 0% and the verification report (2024-07-25) records the justification as 'not addressed', while the monitoring report (2024-07-23) claims it is 'deemed negligible'—no quantitative or qualitative leakage analysis is documented.
• ⚠No buffer pool percentage is stated in any available document for a 5-year crediting period, leaving no quantified protection against potential reversal of water-supply infrastructure.
• ⚠The FNRB value changed from 0.96 (local field measurement, 2023 report) to 82.3 (national default, 2024 report), a discrepancy of nearly two orders of magnitude that is not explained in the extracted record.
• ⚠22 corrective actions were required by the VVB, including errors in baseline parameters (Kenya references in a Nigerian project), incorrect Cb values, and missing sampling-design details, indicating significant quality-control weaknesses in the monitoring process.
• ⚠The ex-ante lifetime ERR estimate is not stated in any available document, preventing a pro-rata over- or under-delivery check against the 1,232,137 tCO₂e verified for the 2023 monitoring period.

Credit Vintages