Soil Carbon Improvement Project through Grassland Management, in South Africa

Audit Analysis

A VCS soil carbon project in South Africa with VVB-confirmed additionality and an 18% buffer pool, but significant methodological concerns including a zero-leakage claim the VVB itself flagged as insufficiently assessed, a project-specific baseline, and a verified ERR that is roughly 4.4× the pro-rata expectation derived from the VVB's own lifetime ex-ante estimate. Multiple contradictions across documents—particularly in the ex-ante lifetime ERR and buffer pool percentage—undermine confidence in the underlying data.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Verified ERR of 984,785 tCO2e is approximately 439% of the pro-rata expectation (224,455 tCO2e) calculated from the VVB's ex-ante lifetime estimate of 997,577 tCO2e over the 4.5-year monitoring period out of a 20-year crediting period, raising serious over-crediting concerns.
• ⚠Zero leakage deduction justified as 'deemed negligible' was explicitly flagged by the VVB as an 'insufficient assessment of zero leakage' in the material findings.
• ⚠The VVB noted 'insufficient demonstration of SOC estimations conservativeness and zero uncertainty' and that the 'allometric equation appropriateness [was] not demonstrated,' indicating methodological weaknesses in the core carbon accounting.
• ⚠A major contradiction exists in the ex-ante lifetime ERR: the verification report states 997,577 tCO2e while the monitoring report states 4,429,631 tCO2e—a 4.4× discrepancy that fundamentally changes the over- vs under-delivery assessment.
• ⚠Internal Risk was rated at 17 due to financial viability and project longevity factors, and a Forward Action Request was raised regarding Non-Permanence Risk Report compliance.

Credit Vintages