Why Long-Term Carbon Removal Offtakes Are Becoming the New Signal of CDR Market Maturity

How TD and Climeworks Fit Into the Shift From Spot Purchases to Multi-Year CDR Contracts

Long-term carbon removal offtakes are becoming a clearer sign of market maturity than headline purchase volume.

TD Bank and Climeworks announced a 10-year carbon removal agreement on June 1, 2026. Climeworks said its managed North American portfolio will include durable CDR pathways such as enhanced rock weathering, biochar, and BECCS, plus access to DAC credits from future North American facilities. That is a strong example of long-term carbon removal offtake, multi-year CDR contracts, and portfolio-based procurement.

The deal matters because it moves away from one-off spot purchases. Forward offtake agreements give buyers schedule visibility and give suppliers more financing credibility. Climeworks has framed long-term commitments as a way to create planning security and help accelerate the ecosystem needed for DAC scale-up.

The market is still early, but it is no longer tiny in contracted terms. CDR.fyi’s 2025 DAC snapshot says 2.47 million tonnes of DAC credits were contracted between 2022 and H1 2025, but only about 0.05% had been delivered by mid-2025. That gap explains why buyers now care so much about supplier bankability and delivery timelines.

TD is also useful because it shows repeat anchor demand. The bank had already secured a 10-year offtake with Charm Industrial, so this second long-duration move suggests institutional buyers are building repeat procurement behavior rather than making symbolic first buys. That is what repeat anchor demand for durable CDR looks like in practice.

The next question is obvious. Why are banks now comfortable acting as anchor offtakers at all, and why are airlines, with hard-to-abate residual emissions and long planning horizons, starting to behave in a similar way?

Why Banks and Airlines Are Emerging as Anchor Buyers for Direct Air Capture

Banks are emerging as anchor buyers because durable removals fit net-zero roadmaps that need long-lived, auditable claims.

Climeworks has repeatedly highlighted financial-services buyers such as UBS, LGT, JPMorgan, and TD as long-term counterparties for 10-year CDR agreements. That is a clear example of financial institution carbon removal procurement, DAC anchor buyers, and sustainability-linked procurement.

Airlines matter for the same reason, but from a different starting point. Aviation has large residual emissions and limited near-term abatement options, so carriers often need high-durability removals to complement SAF, fleet renewal, and operational efficiency. CDR.fyi’s DAC snapshot also shows transport as a major buyer category, accounting for 17% of DAC purchases.

The buyer logic is not only reputational. It is procurement-led. Buyers are locking in future tonnes to protect against scarcity, especially as CDR.fyi reports that just three companies account for 80% of all DAC credits sold.

That makes aviation a useful archetype for hard-to-abate residual emissions management. Long-term DAC contracts can function like capacity reservation for future compliance, claims integrity, and customer-facing climate commitments.

The finance question follows naturally. If banks and airlines are anchor buyers, what do these agreements reveal about price risk, delivery certainty, and how project finance for DAC and other CDR projects actually gets underwritten?

What Long-Term Offtake Agreements Reveal About Price Risk, Supply Security, and Project Finance

Long-term offtakes are a hedge against carbon removal price volatility and supply shortages.

CDR.fyi’s 2025 survey shows suppliers’ 2030 expectations for DACCS breakeven pricing clustered far above today’s early-market transactions. That gap is exactly why buyers use forward contracts to reduce execution risk.

For project developers, a signed offtake is often the difference between a concept and financeability. Climeworks says multi-year DAC commitments foster long-term financing efforts and help support the scale-up of the technology and ecosystem behind it. In other words, offtake economics sit at the center of project bankability.

Supply security is still a major issue. The market remains thin, concentrated, and delivery-constrained. CDR.fyi reports that just three DAC suppliers account for 80% of credits sold, and only a tiny share of contracted tonnes has actually been delivered. Buyers are effectively underwriting future industrial capacity, not just purchasing an existing commodity.

That has direct financing implications. Long-term agreements reduce revenue uncertainty, which can support non-recourse or limited-recourse structures, milestone-based capex deployment, and pre-financing of capture infrastructure, storage, and transport. That is especially relevant for direct air capture project finance.

The next question is whether this finance-led model can broaden demand beyond hyperscalers and sustainability-first corporates, and whether more diverse buyers could improve CDR market liquidity.

How These Deals Could Broaden Demand Beyond Tech Buyers and Reshape CDR Market Liquidity

The buyer base is already widening beyond tech.

CDR.fyi’s 2025 DAC snapshot lists software as the largest buyer segment at 38%, followed by transport and entertainment. That shows the market is still concentrated, but no longer exclusively tech-led. It also creates room for cross-sector carbon removal demand.

The emergence of banks, industrials, and potentially airlines can improve market liquidity by making future tonne demand more predictable across more sectors. That reduces dependence on a small number of large tech procurement events. It matters because DAC purchase volume has historically been driven by a handful of large quarter-specific transactions.

For sellers, broader demand should support better contract comparability, more diversified counterparty risk, and more standardized deal structures. Puro.earth notes that a healthy forward contract market has already helped accelerate transactions in biochar and other durable CDR pathways, which is a useful parallel for DAC.

The B2B implication is straightforward. When more sectors buy forward tonnes, project developers can offer more layered portfolios, such as a blend of DACCS, biochar, and BECCS, instead of single-pathway exposure. That can reduce delivery risk for procurement teams. Climeworks’ TD deal is a live example of that portfolio logic.

The real test is whether this demand pattern can scale across regions and sectors without collapsing under price mismatch, policy fragmentation, and limited project supply.

The Bigger Market Test: Whether Long-Term Carbon Removal Demand Can Scale Across Regions and Sectors

The biggest constraint is still supply-side maturity.

The IEA notes DAC is more energy-intensive and expensive than point-source capture, which means scale depends on access to low-cost clean power, storage infrastructure, and policy support for high-integrity monitoring and certification. DAC scalability is therefore tied to carbon removal infrastructure and high-integrity CDR certification.

Geography is becoming a competitive variable. Climeworks’ TD deal emphasizes North American supply, and its portfolio includes multiple North American pathways. That shows regional availability and storage access are becoming part of procurement strategy rather than an afterthought.

Demand can only scale if price expectations converge. CDR.fyi’s 2025 survey shows a persistent mismatch between buyer expectations and supplier economics, which means region-specific policy, carbon accounting rules, and contract design will shape where the first large markets form.

Sector diversification is the next milestone. If banks, airlines, industrials, and services buyers all commit to long-duration contracts, then carbon removal begins to behave less like venture-style climate procurement and more like an infrastructure-backed market with repeatable offtake, standardized risk allocation, and institutional liquidity.

The market test for 2026 and beyond is simple. Long-term CDR demand has to move from a small number of headline deals to a durable, multi-region buyer base that supports project finance, delivery credibility, and secondary market depth.