Adiguzel II Hydroelectric Power Plant

Audit Analysis

The Adiguzel II hydroelectric project has a VVB-confirmed investment additionality test and a jurisdictional grid-emission-factor baseline, but the 2025 verification report shows the project delivered only about 27% of the pro-rata ex-ante expectation for its monitoring period, raising questions about the robustness of the original assumptions. Thirteen corrective actions (all formatting and documentation issues) and a low extraction confidence level temper confidence in the record, while the absence of a buffer pool and the 2012 grid emission factor add residual risk.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠The 2025 verification report shows 52,448 tCO₂ verified for the 2020–2025 monitoring period, only ~27% of the pro-rata expectation (~192,000 tCO₂) derived from the PDD's 447,405 tCO₂ lifetime estimate over the 10-year crediting period, suggesting the ex-ante baseline may have been overly optimistic or water availability was significantly below assumptions.
• ⚠Thirteen corrective actions were required in the 2025 verification report, all relating to formatting, template compliance, and calculation presentation, indicating weak internal quality control in the project's monitoring documentation.
• ⚠No buffer pool percentage is stated in any available document, leaving no explicit permanence or reversal-risk mitigation mechanism for this avoidance-type project.
• ⚠The grid emission factor of 0.629 tCO₂/MWh is from 2012; if Türkiye's grid has decarbonised since then, the actual per-MWh avoidance is lower than the baseline assumes, compounding the under-delivery concern.

Credit Vintages Exhausted