Anew - Arrowhead Forestry Project

Audit Analysis

The Arrowhead Forestry Project is a 20-year improved forest management project in Minnesota with a 28% buffer pool, 30% quantified leakage deduction, and VVB-verified additionality. However, the validation report identified eight non-conformities—including a fire-risk score initially set at 2% rather than the correct 8%—and the first monitoring period delivered roughly 190% of the pro-rata ex-ante expectation, raising questions about baseline conservatism. Safeguards documentation is incomplete, with no FPIC or grievance mechanism on record.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Eight non-conformities in the validation report, including a fire-risk score initially set at 2% instead of the correct 8% due to the Greenwood Fire within 30 miles, and buffer pool not correctly deducted from Total ERRs to produce Net ERRs
• ⚠First monitoring period verified ERRs (82,263 tCO₂e) are approximately 190% of the pro-rata lifetime ex-ante expectation (~43,193 tCO₂e for one year of a 20-year crediting period), suggesting the ex-ante estimate may be overly conservative or the baseline may understate business-as-usual sequestration
• ⚠Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC) was not conducted and no grievance mechanism is documented, despite the project being on non-federal U.S. forestlands where community engagement is expected

Credit Vintages