Boyabat Hydroelectric Power Plant

Audit Analysis

The Boyabat Hydroelectric Power Plant is a registered VCS avoidance project with a verified additionality test and a reputable VVB, but its integrity is significantly undermined by four material findings that question whether the project is truly additional given its long operating history, 21 outstanding corrective actions, and a project-specific baseline. The project is under-delivering relative to its ex-ante estimate (actual ER approximately 50% lower due to seasonal conditions), which limits over-crediting risk but raises questions about the robustness of the original baseline assumptions. Multiple contradictions across documents, particularly in ERR figures and baseline methodology, reduce confidence in the data record.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Four material findings in the 2023 verification report directly challenge additionality, asking the proponent to explain why the project is not business-as-usual given its history and why it was not developed earlier when the option was available
• ⚠21 corrective actions (CAR-1 through CAR-22, excluding CAR-18) remain outstanding, indicating systemic documentation and compliance gaps
• ⚠Leakage deduction is 0% with no justification provided in the most recent verification report (2023), while the earlier 2022 report indicated leakage was quantified — a regression in rigor
• ⚠Baseline methodology is inconsistent across documents: the 2023 verification report describes a project-specific baseline while the 2022 monitoring report references a jurisdictional baseline
• ⚠Actual ER is approximately 50% lower than the ex-ante estimate in the approved PDD, attributed to seasonal conditions, raising questions about the robustness of the original baseline assumptions

Credit Vintages