Gu’ertu River Cascade Stage III 13.5MW Hydropower Project

Audit Analysis

A 13.5 MW run-of-river hydropower project in China verified under CDM AMS-I.D. with additionality confirmed via an investment test by TÜV NORD CERT. The project shows a significant under-delivery relative to its ex-ante estimate, which provides a conservative safety margin, but the reliance on a 2006 grid emission factor, absence of a buffer pool, and contradictory leakage characterizations across monitoring reports introduce moderate integrity and claim-safety concerns.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Grid emission factor of 0.8712 tCO2/MWh is drawn from 2006 data, making the baseline potentially outdated and inflating claimed reductions relative to current grid intensity.
• ⚠Twenty material findings at validation included errors in the IRR calculation (incorrect tax rate, VAT misclassified as expense, construction-period inconsistency), raising questions about the robustness of the additionality investment test.
• ⚠No buffer pool or permanence mechanism is documented, and no reversal-event data is available in the extracted record.
• ⚠Leakage justification is contradictory: the 2016 monitoring report states it was 'deemed negligible' while the 2022 monitoring report records it as 'not addressed.'
• ⚠Thirty-seven corrective actions were required at validation, indicating substantial initial documentation and calculation weaknesses.

Credit Vintages