Guohua Hekou (Phase II) Wind Farm Project

Audit Analysis

A CDM wind project in China with a standard ACM0002 methodology and VVB-confirmed additionality, but a striking 7× over-delivery relative to the pro-rata ex-ante expectation raises serious over-crediting concerns. The baseline method is inconsistently described across documents, and the grid emission factor is from 2010 while monitoring covers 2012–2014. Only one monitoring period is documented for a seven-year crediting period, limiting confidence in long-term performance.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Verified ERR of 161,901 tCO₂ for a ~20-month monitoring period is approximately 7× the pro-rata expectation (~23,000) derived from the ex-ante estimate of 97,364 tCO₂ over the full 7-year crediting period — an extreme over-delivery that warrants scrutiny of the ex-ante calibration or the monitoring calculation.
• ⚠Baseline method is described as 'project' in the monitoring report but 'jurisdictional' in the validation report, creating ambiguity about whether a project-specific or grid-level baseline was applied.
• ⚠Grid emission factor of 0.9309 tCO₂/MWh is dated 2010, yet the monitoring period runs from August 2012 to April 2014; no updated or verified grid EF for the actual monitoring window is documented.
• ⚠Only one monitoring period (2012–2014) is documented for a seven-year crediting period ending July 2019; no subsequent verification or monitoring reports appear in the extracted record.

Credit Vintages