Humbo Ethiopia Assisted Natural Regeneration Project

Audit Analysis

The Humbo Ethiopia A/R project has a VVB-confirmed additionality assessment and documented safeguards, but suffers from a project-specific baseline, an unquantified reversal risk, a 0% leakage deduction justified only as 'negligible,' and six open corrective actions. The 2024 verification report shows the project delivered roughly 79% of its pro-rata ex-ante expectation for the 2017–2021 monitoring period, indicating conservative crediting. Low extraction confidence and multiple inter-document contradictions reduce confidence in the overall data picture.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Six corrective actions remain open in the 2024 verification report, including justification of CO2 fixation calculations, methodology version update, and evidence of re-measuring after strata changes
• ⚠Leakage treatment shifted from 'quantified' (2018 verification) to 'deemed negligible' (2024 verification) with a 0% deduction, weakening the leakage safeguard over time
• ⚠Reversal risk is described as 'not addressed' — the project references the tCER mechanism and protection measures but does not explicitly quantify reversal probability or maintain a buffer pool
• ⚠Minimum extraction confidence is rated 'low,' indicating at least one key document was poorly readable, undermining data reliability
• ⚠Crediting period start date is inconsistent across documents (2006 in the 2022 monitoring report vs. 2016 in the 2018 verification report)

Credit Vintages