Mindanao Tree Planting Program for our Climate and Communities (MinTrees)

Audit Analysis

The MinTrees project is a long-running (since 2015) VCS ALM tree-planting project in the Philippines with a confirmed investment-test additionality, an 18% buffer pool, and no reported reversals. However, the project relies on a project-specific baseline, a zero-leakage assumption that shifted from 'quantified' to 'deemed negligible' between verification cycles, and an extensive list of material findings (12 NCRs, 26 NIRs) that, while all closed, reveal recurring gaps in stakeholder consultation, baseline evidence, and leakage justification. The verified ERR of 34,509 tCO₂e for the 2021–2023 monitoring period represents roughly 34% of the pro-rata ex-ante expectation, indicating conservative delivery but also questions about the original baseline assumptions.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Leakage justification shifted from 'quantified' (2022 VR) to 'deemed negligible' (2026 VR) while the VVB itself raised a material finding about the lack of assessment of zero leakage — the less conservative position was adopted without clear new evidence
• ⚠The monitoring report (Dec 2025) claimed 41,468 tCO₂e but the VVB verified only 34,509 tCO₂e, a ~17% reduction that signals the project's internal calculations may overstate removals
• ⚠Project-specific baseline with no stated last reassessment date; the VVB flagged insufficient evidence for zero baseline emissions assumptions in two separate verification cycles
• ⚠12 Non-Conformity Reports and 26 New Information Requests were raised during validation, including non-eligible areas in KML boundary files and missing CCB Validation Statement — all closed but indicating a high initial documentation burden
• ⚠CORSIA eligibility and CCP status are not stated in any available document, leaving dual-channel crediting risk unassessed

Credit Vintages