Orlivska Wind Farm

Audit Analysis

The Orlivska Wind Farm is a 10-year wind energy avoidance project in Ukraine with VVB-confirmed additionality and no reversal events, but it delivered only about 41% of its pro-rata ex-ante expectation for the monitoring period, and several key MRV and safeguards fields remain unstated. A contradiction in the baseline classification (project vs. jurisdictional) and in the ERR figures between the validation and verification documents introduces moderate data-reliability concerns. Overall the project is conservative in its credit issuance but lacks full transparency on safeguards and baseline methodology.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Verified ERR of 224,985 tCO2 is only ~41% of the pro-rata ex-ante expectation (~544,000 tCO2) for the 2.4-year monitoring period, suggesting the ex-ante activity-level assumptions were significantly optimistic or that output was constrained (e.g., grid curtailment, turbine availability, or the 2022 conflict in Ukraine).
• ⚠Baseline method is labelled 'project' in the verification report but 'jurisdictional' in the monitoring report — an unresolved contradiction that affects baseline credibility.
• ⚠No buffer pool percentage is stated in any available document, leaving permanence risk unquantified despite the absence of reversal events.
• ⚠FPIC is explicitly not conducted and no grievance mechanism is documented, leaving social safeguards under-addressed for a project operating in a conflict-affected country.

Credit Vintages