Small-scale solar electrical programme, South Africa – CPA-004

Audit Analysis

A 77 MWp small-scale solar programme in South Africa verified under Gold Standard with a recognised methodology (AMS-I.F.) and a jurisdictional baseline, but the project record is severely undermined by 14 cross-document contradictions on core parameters (additionality status, baseline method, ERR totals, FPIC, crediting period) and a low extraction confidence rating. The project is underperforming relative to ex-ante estimates (one VPA at one-third of expected output), and key permanence and double-claiming data are absent.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠14 contradictions across documents on core parameters including additionality verification status, baseline method, ERR totals, FPIC, and crediting period — the 2026 verification report and 2024 verification report directly disagree on whether additionality was VVB-verified and on the baseline method (jurisdictional vs project-specific)
• ⚠Six different ERR totals appear across documents (96,371 / 96,373 / 110,851 / 164,511 / 219,407 / 263,846 / 383,313 tCO2e), making it impossible to confirm a single verified credit quantity without further clarification
• ⚠VPA-015 actual generation is one-third of the estimated output (flagged as CAR 03 in the 2024 verification report), and the project overall reports lower-than-expected generation due to irradiation, grid outages, and equipment failures
• ⚠CORSIA eligibility and CCP status are both not stated in any available document, leaving double-claiming risk unassessed
• ⚠No buffer pool percentage, no permanence claim period, and no reversal-event data found in the extracted record

Credit Vintages Exhausted