The Kasigau Corridor REDD Project – Phase I Rukinga Sanctuary

Audit Analysis

The Kasigau Corridor REDD+ Phase I project has a verified combined additionality test, a 13% buffer pool, and no reported reversals, but is undermined by a 0% leakage deduction in a forest-conservation context, a project-specific baseline, an extremely low pro-rata delivery ratio (~11%), and a long history of material findings including serious community grievances (sexual offenses, intimidation) and a PIR that failed to report a ranger fatality. The low extraction confidence and numerous ERR-figure contradictions further erode confidence in the data.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠Verified ERR of 225,194 tCO2e represents only ~11% of the pro-rata lifetime expectation (3,500,000 × 17/30 ≈ 1,983,333) for the 2005–2021 monitoring span, indicating severe under-delivery against the ex-ante estimate.
• ⚠Leakage deduction dropped from 13.58% (2013 verification) to 0% (2023 verification) in a REDD+ project where displacement of deforestation pressure is a well-known risk; the justification shifted from 'deemed negligible' to 'quantified' yet the deduction is still zero.
• ⚠The PIR failed to report the death of a wildlife ranger, incorrectly stating no fatalities in the past 10 years; sexual offenses, intimidation, and unfair employment practices were also documented in community grievances.
• ⚠The ex-ante lifetime ERR estimate was revised downward from 7,630,494 tCO2e (2016 monitoring report) to 3,500,000 tCO2e (2021 verification report), a 54% reduction, without clear justification in the extracted record.
• ⚠35 VCS findings, 7 non-conformances, 5 clarification requests, and multiple forward action requests were identified in a single verification cycle, indicating systemic MRV and reporting weaknesses.

Credit Vintages