India’s entry into CORSIA, the UN’s carbon offsetting scheme for international aviation, could add around 140 million tonnes of CO2 to global offsetting requirements between 2027 and 2035, roughly 10% of the total, with most of the obligations falling on foreign airlines, according to a report covered by Carbon Pulse. For credit buyers, project developers and investors, India’s CORSIA offset demand is one of the largest single-country additions to the aviation scheme’s compliance market in its mandatory phase.
What the estimate says
The figure of around 140 million tonnes of CO2 covers the period from 2027, when India becomes subject to offsetting requirements, through 2035, the end of CORSIA’s second phase, according to Carbon Pulse. At about 10% of the global total, India would rank among the scheme’s largest sources of new demand.
A notable feature of the estimate is the distribution of obligations. Most of the offsetting requirement linked to India’s participation would fall on foreign airlines, according to Carbon Pulse. CORSIA allocates obligations on routes between participating states, so carriers from other participating countries flying to and from India absorb much of the requirement generated by Indian traffic growth.
The starting point: 30 Mt of emissions in 2023
A working paper published in September 2026 by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) provides the emissions foundation for assessing India’s exposure. It estimates that flights departing India generated 30 Mt of well-to-wake CO2 equivalent emissions in 2023, according to the ICCT.
The study, authored by Ana Beatriz Rebouças Eufrásio, Xingyi Kirsi Fan and Krithika P.R., builds a greenhouse gas inventory for Indian commercial aviation in 2023 and combines it with market growth projections to estimate offset requirements from 2027 to 2035, according to the ICCT. India is described as one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing aviation markets, and the paper finds that Indian carriers face a growing compliance burden as a result.
How CORSIA’s phases bring India in
CORSIA is structured in three phases: a pilot phase from 2021 to 2023, a first phase from 2024 to 2026, and a second phase from 2027 to 2035. India did not volunteer for the first two phases and will be subject to offsetting requirements from 2027 onward, according to the ICCT.
The offsetting obligation each year is calculated against a baseline that ICAO set at 85% of 2019 emissions through 2035, according to the ICCT. Because Indian traffic is growing quickly, the gap between actual emissions and that fixed baseline widens over time, which is the mechanism behind the rising requirement.
Why fuels will not absorb the obligation
The ICCT analysis finds that current CORSIA-eligible fuel policies are unlikely to substantially reduce offsetting needs. Less than 10% of India’s total offset requirement is projected to be met through the adoption of CORSIA-eligible fuels, with the remaining 90% to be addressed through the purchase of offset credits, according to the ICCT.
India currently has a non-binding sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) target that covers only international flights. The paper argues that converting it into a mandate, with a clear post-2030 blending trajectory, would support domestic SAF production and reduce reliance on credits, according to the ICCT.
This heavy reliance on carbon credits creates concrete risks. The ICCT warns that Indian carriers could be exposed to offset price volatility, restricted credit availability and uncertainty regarding credit sustainability.
Implications for buyers and developers
For credit buyers, the demand signal is structural rather than discretionary. A requirement of around 140 million tonnes over nine years, 90% of it met through credits on the ICCT’s figures, implies steady purchasing of CORSIA-eligible units through the early 2030s. Airlines with India exposure, including the foreign carriers that hold most of the obligation, will need supply strategies that account for tightening eligible-credit availability.
For project developers, the story reinforces the premium on CORSIA eligibility. Supply that qualifies for the scheme’s mandatory phase serves a compliance buyer with a fixed timeline, which differs from voluntary demand that can shrink in weak economic conditions.
The ICCT also notes that domestic flights represent the largest share of India’s departures and more than half of the country’s aviation emissions, according to the ICCT. CORSIA covers only international routes, so a large part of Indian aviation emissions sits outside the offsetting framework entirely.
What to watch
The first checkpoint is India’s operational preparation for 2027, including monitoring, reporting and verification arrangements for its carriers. The second is any move to convert the SAF target into a mandate, which would change the balance between fuel-based compliance and credit purchases.
On the market side, watch the supply of CORSIA-eligible credits as the scheme’s second phase approaches. If India adds around 10% to global offsetting requirements while eligible supply remains limited, the price exposure the ICCT flags becomes the central risk for every airline buying into the scheme.
