REDD+ Project for Caribbean Guatemala: The Conservation Coast
#45of 99 in REDD+#8of 15 in Guatemala#810of 1339 in Verra (VCS)#16of 29 in VM0015
Audit Analysis
A long-running (since 2012) REDD+ avoidance project in Caribbean Guatemala with VVB-confirmed additionality and no reported reversals, but undermined by a project-specific modeled baseline, a leakage deduction reduced from 20% to 0%, a 30% downward correction to future crediting, and numerous unresolved documentation gaps flagged by the VVB. The low extraction confidence and inability to independently reproduce GHG calculations limit confidence in the verified figures.
Red Flags
- Leakage deduction reduced from 20% to 0% based on 'new analysis' without the underlying quantification being available for independent review
- Baseline deforestation estimates corrected to comply with VM0015 Equation 3, reducing future crediting by approximately 30%, indicating initial over-crediting
- VVB identified 'insufficient data to reproduce the calculations of the net GHG ERRs' and 'referenced documents in the monitoring report unavailable'
- Baseline method shifted from jurisdictional (2017) to project-specific (2024), weakening the robustness of the counterfactual
- Financial viability risk rated 3 with breakeven only in 2025 and 42% funding secured, raising long-term permanence concerns
Credit Vintages
| Issued | Retired | Available | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 188,355 | 165,263 | 23,092 | |
| 2013 | 372,531 | 372,521 | 10 | |
| 2014 | 418,240 | 416,871 | 1,369 | |
| 2015 | 488,965 | 474,993 | 13,972 | |
| 2016 | 786,527 | 784,739 | 1,788 | |
| 2017 | 869,942 | 841,433 | 28,509 | |
| 2018 | 907,920 | 907,920 | 0 | |
| 2019 | 704,418 | 679,457 | 24,961 | |
| 2020 | 795,043 | 729,771 | 65,272 | |
| 2021 | 729,916 | 118,117 | 611,799 | |
| 2022 | 689,651 | 383,354 | 306,297 | |
| Total | 6,951,508 | 5,874,439 | 1,077,069 |
Risk Indicators
VVB-confirmed barrier test
10% buffer, no reversals, but financial viability risk
0% deduction, reduced from 20%, justification not independently verifiable
Project-specific modeled baseline, reassessed 2024, 30% crediting correction
FPIC, grievance mechanism, benefit sharing documented
CCP approved, CORSIA eligibility not stated
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