Lithos Carbon US Southeast ERW Deployment

Audit Analysis

The Lithos Carbon US Southeast ERW project has a VVB-confirmed investment additionality test but suffers from fundamental model deficiencies (missing secondary dissolution effects, pH-dependent weathering rates, and field performance expectations) that the project explicitly states it is unable to correct, resulting in a qualified positive opinion. The verified ERR figure equals the full lifetime claim for a single-year monitoring period, raising serious over-crediting concerns, while safeguards, permanence mechanisms, and leakage justification are largely absent.

Project Description

Red Flags

• ⚠The verification report records multiple material findings that the ERW model omits secondary dissolution effects (fluid supersaturation, clay formation, surface passivation), pH-dependent weathering rates, and field performance expectations — and Lithos explicitly stated it is unable to make the necessary corrections, with the issue closed only via a qualified positive opinion.
• ⚠The verified ERR of 2,361.71 tCO2e for a single 1-year monitoring period equals the full 5-year lifetime claim, representing 500% of the pro-rata expectation (472.3 tCO2e), a ratio that strongly suggests over-crediting or a misalignment between the claimed and verified bases.
• ⚠No buffer pool, no explicit permanence mechanism, and reversal events are marked as not addressed, despite 654.65 tCO2e of quantified carbon storage losses from riverine and marine pathways.
• ⚠Safeguards are effectively absent: the verification report confirms no FPIC, no grievance mechanism, and no documented safeguards, contradicting the validation report and PDD which claimed these were present.
• ⚠Leakage deduction is 0% with the justification recorded as 'not addressed' in the verification report, despite the PDD claiming it was 'deemed negligible'.

Credit Vintages Exhausted